Taking the concept from the hit movie Money Ball where Billy Beane looks for undervalued players to build his team, we look at what this may look like for age group triathlon. I will use myself as an example for this.
So if we ignore traditional metrics that seem impressive, and instead focus on efficiency, marginal gains, undervalued performance indicators and data driven strategy.
The Ironman Moneyball Strategy
Mission: Podium in 45-49 age group at Ironman cairns 2026 in 9:30-9:45
Philosophy: Outthink, out-plan, out-measure and out-execute the competition using undervalued performance leavers.
Performance Metrics That Matter Most (Undervalued Metrics)
- Decoupling (efficiency under fatigue) A major differentiator in my run
- Swim SPM and DPS interaction (not just pace) for a sustained 1:35-1:40 at low cost
- % of LT1 sustainable for 5hrs on the bike: real race limiter.
- Muscle resilience (long runs off the bike at tempo) – More predictive than VO2max.
- Fatmax power output drift (Bike 135bpm and run145bpm over months)
- Sleep quality + HRV trends, not just single day values
- Nutrition absorption (real time gut tolerance > theoretical carb targets)
- Drop in watts from road bike to TT position
Overvalued Metrics (ignore or treat with caution)
- FTP (without specificity to race duration)
- CTL alone (without breakdown to discipline)
- VO2max (except to track health trends)
- Max weekly hours (volume – unless executed right)
- Swim volume without purpose
Moneyball Tactics by Discipline
Swim
- Objective 1:05 swim @ <140bpm
- Key Efficiency Metric: Strokes per minute (70spm with 0.92+ DPS)
- Tactics:
- 12 week cadence boost block with swim cords + tempo trainer
- No garbage yardage: every swim = aerobic foundation + threshold or tech
- Open water race-pace start drills and group positioning work (start fast, settle early)
Bike
- Objective: 5hr @ 220NP with <140bpm and CdA <0.26
- Key efficiency Metric: Time to decoupling at Fatmax + Aero watts/wkg (not just FTP)
- Tactics:
- TT position ROI: Raise power in aero via Steve Neal-Style SE work and rolling 45min intervals @ 135bpm
- Winter ROI block: Improving LT1 and SE with 250 TSS weekly = low risk/high reward
- Aero Optimisation
- Use chung method for aero testing in velodrome
- Prioritize low cost gains: Position > Helmet > Suit > Wheels > EZY covers
- Heat ROI: Weekly hot bath = metabolic efficiency + race day protection
Run
- Objective: 3:20 marathon off the bike (~4:44/km average)
- Key efficiency Metric: Cardiac Drift, cramp resilience and HR per watt on long bricks
- Tactics:
- Winter: Strength block + Achilles/glutes/hamstring robustbness
- Spring: Bi-weekly long bricks starting at 140bpm
- Race-Specific: “cramp insurance” protocol: hill reps, long distances, and eccentric loading
- Biomech ROI: Calves, glutes, hips – train in both Alphaflys and stability shoes for contrast
- Marathon fatigue Simulation: 4hr ride with 22km run off the bike with last 5km at goal pace in heat kit.
Nutrition Moneyball
What Matters:
- Absorption under stress > theoretical intake
- Carbs periodization for training adaptation (especially in winter)
- Late-Race gut resilience > early-race fueling
Tactics:
- Winter/Spring: low-intensity Z2 rides fasted or low carbs (1-2 per week) for mitochondrial efficiency
- Race Prep: 3-4 gut training bricks/month at 100-110 g/hr carbs + full sodium + heat overlay
- Experiment with sodium bicarb or keytone ester ONLY in race simulations
- Tart cherry & creatine for resilience, not just performance
Equipment Value Optimization
Goal: Aero, durability, cost efficient
Key Moneyball Principles:
- TT power gap reduction = most cost effective “free speed”
- Aero bottle locations = Test for aero drags
- Calf guards, suit, helmet, gloves combo = Huge ROI
- Tyres: Conti GP5000 S TR + Latex tube = top-tier Crr
Shopping List (in order of ROI)
- Position dial-in (aero testing, comfort, retention)
- Skinsuit + aero calf guards
- Helmet
- 28mm high thread tyres (gp5000)
- Ezy Aero comb
Strength & Durability
- 2x weekly full body strength (40min)
- 1x core/stability (10min)
- Focus: Hamstring (high glutes tie-in), achilles, adductors
- Isometric loading + eccentric loading in winter then move to plyo in spring
Season Blueprint (Aug through to June)
- Foundation Phase (Aug to Nov) – Metabolic efficiency (fatmax, SE, strength)
- Development Phase (Dec to Feb) – Raise LT1, build TT power, run durability
- Competition Phase March to Apr – Race specific long ricks, heat blocks
- Race Ready: May – Specificity, race rehearsal. taper test
- Taper / Race week: Glide in fresh + hot, execute like a tactician
TRAIN SMOOTH 